Quality Wins Bunched At The Top: Of the top nine wins so far this season, Duke has three and Kentucky and Virginia have two apiece. Miami (at Duke) and Richmond (at VCU) are the other two that snuck in there. Quality wins of such an extreme nature put all three schools in a great position for a No. 1 seed (or a No. 2 seed if any of them pick up a few losses).
Last Four In: 23 of 32 conference leaders are currently outside the KPI Top 45 (the current cut line to make the NCAA Tournament). Of those 23, only 3 (Wyoming, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech) would come from a multi-bid league should they win the conference tournament. What this means is that there is already condensing happening at the 12-seed line. If this continues, look for the last four at-large teams to play into a No. 11 seed this year.
Non D-I Games Have to Count, right?: Tulsa’s loss to Southeast Oklahoma State early in the season is the largest outlier of the season to date. Tulsa is No. 75 in KPI, but No. 43 in the RPI because that bad home loss simply doesn’t count. Non D-I teams are combined together in KPI, meaning that “team” is No. 347 in KPI.
The Fault in RPI: The fault lies in how Kansas is ahead of Kentucky in the current RPI. 50% of that formula is opponent’s winning percentage, a huge amount (twice as much as the 25% for your team’s winning percentage, and the 25% for your opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage).
Strength of Schedule: For the second straight year, Kansas will likely finish with the top strength of schedule in the country. They currently have the No. 1 SOS with a No. 11 Remaining SOS and a No. 1 Future SOS. Their non-conference SOS is No. 4.
- #2 Kansas (18-3, 7-1 Big 12), .186 SOS
- #19 Oklahoma (14-7, 5-4 Big 12), .152 SOS
- #26 Xavier (14-8, 5-5 Big East), .140 SOS
- #10 North Carolina (17-5, 7-2 ACC), .139 SOS
- #24 Georgetown (15-6, 7-3 Big East), .133 SOS
- #48 Florida (12-9, 5-3 SEC), .129 SOS
- #14 Butler (16-6, 6-3 Big East), .124 SOS
- #4 Duke (18-3, 5-3 ACC), .123 SOS
- #30 Texas (14-7, 3-5 Big 12), .120 SOS
- #8 VCU (17-4, 7-1 Atlantic 10), .120 SOS
Top 10 Wins by KPI – Week of January 25-Feburary 1, 2015
- +1.03 #4 Duke 69, at #3 Virginia 63 (Jan 31)
- +0.94 #51 Richmond 64, at #8 VCU 52 (Jan 31)
- +0.83 #26 Xavier 66, at #24 Georgetown 53 (Jan 27)
- +0.79 at #22 Northern Iowa 70, #18 Wichita State 54 (Jan 31)
- +0.77 at #17 Notre Dame 77, #4 Duke 73 (Jan 28)
- +0.77 at #28 Ohio State 80, #15 Maryland 56 (Jan 29)
- +0.75 #118 Pepperdine 67, at #55 St. Mary’s (CA) 62 (Jan 31)
- +0.73 at #57 UCLA 69, #21 Utah 59 (Jan 29)
- +0.73 at #62 Boise State 82, #31 Colorado State 78 (Jan 27)
- +0.72 at #77 Pittsburgh 76, #17 Notre Dame 72
Top 10 Wins by KPI – FULL SEASON
- +1.03 #4 Duke 69, at #3 Virginia 63 (Jan 31)
- +0.99 #4 Duke 80, at #6 Wisconsin 70 (Dec 3)
- +0.99 #47 Miami (FL) 90, at #4 Duke 74 (Jan 13)
- +0.97 #3 Virginia 74, at #8 VCU 57 (Dec 6)
- +0.95 #4 Duke 63, at #12 Louisville 52 (Jan 17)
- +0.94 #1 Kentucky 58, at #12 Louisville 50 (Dec 27)
- +0.94 #51 Richmond 64, at #8 VCU 52 (Jan 31)
- +0.93 #1 Kentucky 72, #2 Kansas 40 (Nov 18)
- +0.90 #58 Wyoming 60, at #31 Colorado State 54 (Jan 7)
- +0.90 #3 Virginia 76, at #15 Maryland 65 (Dec 3)
Top 10 Outlier Games by KPI – FULL SEASON
- 125.1% #347 Non D-I/SE Oklahoma State 69, at #75 Tulsa 66 (Dec 10)
- 114.2% #347 Non D-I/Ferris State 82, at #128 Bowling Green 68 (Dec 21)
- 96.4% #244 Brown 77, at #20 Providence 67 (Dec 8)
- 86.8% #340 Marist 75, at #186 Canisius 67 (Feb 1)
- 84.9% #329 UNC-Greensboro 80, at #167 East Tennessee State 79 (Dec 13)
- 84.7% #224 Houston 77, at #59 Murray State 74 (Nov 14)
- 83.8% #311 Cal State-Bakersfield 55, at #87 California 52 (Dec 28)
- 83.7% #291 Nevada 64, at #97 UNLV 62 (Jan 7)
- 81.8% #349 Central Connecticut 56, at #274 Hartford 47 (Dec 6)
- 79.8% #288 Southeastern Louisiana 108, at #162 Incarnate Word 98 (Jan 17)
College Basketball Statistical Trends
- Scoring remains down from this time last year (down 3.99 PPG, down 5.6%) and we can pretty much conclude that the final season average is going to hit right around the high-66’s or low 67’s.
- Possessions are down 1.85 possessions per game while points per possession are down .031 PPP (3.0%).
- Free throw attempts are down 10.5% from last year.
- Steals and turnovers are up.
