College Basketball Scoring Trends Reverse

Through the first three days of last season, scoring had risen 4.5 PPG and 6.6% from the previous year.  This year?  A different story.

Scoring is down 5.5% and back closer to levels seen before the highly publicized rule changes in 2013-14.  Fewer fouls have been called, and fewer free throws attempted.  There is an increase in steals and turnovers (both those numbers notably dropped in 2013-14).  The pace of play is also slower, as the average length of possession is 0.53 seconds longer.

The sample sizes are very similar – the first three days of both this season and last.  The scheduling concepts are also similar, though there are a few more games this year (256 to 226) because the season is a week shorter and scheduled more tightly.

It is tough to identify the cause of the change and it is important to note that there remains a slight increase in 2014-15 relative to 2012-13.  That said, 87.8% of the scoring increase we saw the first three days of 2013-14 is now gone.

cbbtrends

 

Year PPG in Week 1 %Change
2010-11 70.23
2011-12 68.89 -1.9%
2012-13 68.58 -0.5%
2013-14 73.12 6.6%
2014-15 69.11 -5.5%

All data points below compares the first three days of the 2013-14 season and the first three days of this year and is computed on a per team, per game basis.

  • Possessions are down 2.2 per team, per game (from 72.0 to 69.8), a decrease of 3.1%.
  • Scoring is down 4.0 points per team, per game, a decrease of 5.5%. With possessions also down, points per possession are down 2.5% (from 1.016 to 0.991).  Scoring in 2014-15 remains up 0.55 PPG from the first three days of 2012-13.
  • 7% of the scoring decrease is tied to fewer made free throws, 48.2% from fewer made 2-pt field goals and 0.1% from fewer made 3-pt field goals.
  • The average length of a possession was 16.75 seconds over the first three days of the 2013-14 season, while the average length has been 17.28 seconds to date this year (an increase of 0.53 seconds per possession, up 3.1%).
  • Field Goal Attempts per possession are nearly constant. 3-pt field goal attempts per possession are up slightly (0.5%), but 3-pt FG% is up from 31.8% to 32.7%.  Rebounds per possession are also nearly the same.
  • Free Throw Attempts are down 10.1% (2.5 FTA/game), and down 7.3% per possession. Free Throw Percentage is down to 66.5%.  While still very early, this would be the lowest full season FT percentage since 1957-58 (66.4%).
  • Steals per possession are up 4.2% and turnovers per possession are up 5.8%, reversing a trend that was tied directly to the increase in fouls and free throw attempts last year.
  • Personal fouls are down 5.5% per game (1.16 per team, per game), down 2.5% per possession.

Some additional notes:

  • 7% of games so far this season have been decided by 11 or more points. The average margin is 20.2 PPG.
  • Division I teams are 68-0 against Non D-I teams this season.
  • Home teams went 217-25 (.897) this weekend. There were also 14 games played at neutral sites.

Win-Loss Record, KPI, and Scoring Data by Conference (through Nov. 16, 2014)

Rk Conf KPI W-L Pct. Rk PF Rk PA Rk Margin Rk Pt/Pos Rk
1 Big 12 .089 13-0 1.000 1 79.5 4 56.5 2 23.1 2 1.130 4
2 ACC .069 21-1 .955 3 81.5 2 53.9 1 27.6 1 1.174 1
3 Mtn West .052 14-3 .824 8 71.5 14 63.4 12 8.1 14 1.076 10
4 Big East .050 11-0 1.000 1 81.4 3 62.5 9 18.9 5 1.129 5
5 Pac-12 .039 14-2 .875 5 82.2 1 63.1 11 19.1 4 1.153 2
6 American .032 9-2 .818 9 71.5 15 61.5 6 10.0 12 1.020 16
7 MAC .026 11-2 .846 6 75.1 10 61.6 8 13.5 8 1.071 11
8 Big Ten .025 16-2 .889 4 79.3 5 56.8 3 22.5 3 1.146 3
9 SEC .021 12-4 .750 13 77.6 8 62.9 10 14.7 7 1.093 8
10 C-USA .019 12-3 .800 10 73.1 12 61.5 7 11.6 10 1.009 18
11 WCC .017 12-3 .800 10 79.0 6 67.8 18 11.2 11 1.119 6
12 Big South .016 9-5 .643 14 74.4 11 70.7 23 3.6 18 1.028 15
13 Atlantic 10 .014 16-3 .842 7 75.6 9 60.0 4 15.6 6 1.111 7
14 Patriot .013 6-8 .429 18 64.9 24 69.2 21 (4.3) 22 0.977 20
15 MVC .009 6-4 .600 15 71.2 16 61.3 5 9.9 13 1.048 14
16 Big West (.002) 7-7 .500 16 69.5 19 65.4 14 4.1 17 1.053 13
17 MAAC (.003) 4-9 .308 25 65.4 23 74.5 28 (9.1) 25 0.957 23
18 Atl Sun (.004) 5-7 .417 19 62.0 28 72.6 26 (10.6) 27 0.872 29
19 WAC (.006) 3-7 .300 26 64.9 25 75.3 29 (10.4) 26 0.919 26
20 Sun Belt (.008) 8-2 .800 10 78.5 7 65.7 15 12.8 9 1.081 9
21 Colonial (.012) 4-6 .400 20 61.8 29 66.7 17 (4.9) 23 0.918 27
22 Southland (.022) 6-9 .400 20 70.1 18 74.3 27 (4.2) 21 0.952 24
23 OVC (.027) 5-9 .357 24 71.0 17 65.3 13 5.7 15 1.011 17
24 Big Sky (.029) 4-12 .250 28 65.6 22 77.6 31 (12.1) 28 0.947 25
25 Horizon (.031) 6-6 .500 16 73.0 13 68.8 19 4.3 16 1.059 12
26 MEAC (.034) 5-15 .250 28 61.2 30 75.6 30 (14.4) 29 0.871 30
27 SoCon (.047) 4-11 .267 27 64.3 26 70.3 22 (5.9) 24 0.967 22
28 Summit (.048) 4-7 .364 22 67.4 20 68.9 20 (1.5) 20 0.972 21
29 SWAC (.051) 1-14 .067 32 62.4 27 84.1 32 (21.7) 32 0.879 28
30 Ivy (.054) 4-7 .364 22 66.9 21 65.8 16 1.1 19 1.008 19
31 Am East (.060) 2-9 .182 31 54.1 32 71.1 24 (17.0) 31 0.834 31
32 NEC (.087) 2-8 .200 30 55.6 31 72.2 25 (16.6) 30 0.832 32
Non D-I (.141) 0-68 .000 57.7 84.1 (26.4) 0.803
Ind. (.062) 0-1 .000 58.0 77.0 (19.0) 0.759
Posted in College Basketball, KPI Sports and tagged , .