Week 7 KPI Epilogue: “Outliers Be Damned”

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Just because one team beat another doesn’t mean they have to be ranked ahead of them.  Right?

In this week’s KPI Rankings, TCU remains ahead of Baylor and Oregon moves ahead of Arizona despite the lower-ranked team having beaten the higher-ranked team in the last ten days.  What that means is the resume outside of that single game is so much better for the losing team that they can overcome that result.  For now.

Be careful not to overreact to a single result.  We all want to judge games in the moment, but judging them over time gives us far more accurate interpretations of what happened.

The Texas A&M at South Carolina result looks a lot different now than it did on Opening Night.  The Washington State win at Utah is the biggest outlier on the board right now, and by a considerable margin.

Don’t judge in the moment and warp your own perception for later.  You’ll want a fresh mind and a fresh perspective come November.

Mock Selection Review:  The College Football Playoff conducted a mock selection committee meeting on Thursday to help media understand the process the real committee will take part in later this fall.  I posted 2008 KPI data to coincide with their exercise.  The top four they chose (Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC) matched the top four of that year’s final KPI rankings (Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, and USC).

Remaining Unbeaten Teams:  There are now six remaining unbeaten teams:  Mississippi State, Mississippi, Florida State, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Marshall.  Four of the six still play one another (Notre Dame at Florida State on October 18, Mississippi State at Mississippi on November 29).  The six remaining unbeaten teams are also the exact six who have achieved bowl eligibility.

  • Mississippi State and Notre Dame are both 4-0 at home while the other four are 3-0 at home.
  • Mississippi State and Baylor are the only two with wins over Top 10 teams (Auburn, TCU).
  • Undefeated teams ranked by Strength of Schedule: #9 Mississippi State, #22 Mississippi, #58 Florida State, #70 Notre Dame, #89 Baylor, #118 Marshall

There are 25 teams still unbeaten in conference play.  Florida State and Georgia Southern are the only teams to start 4-0 in conference play.  Ohio State, Central Florida, Utah State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Hawaii, and Texas State have only played one conference game to date.

Mississippi State/Ole Miss – Miss St best win

More High Scoring:  Baylor’s 61-58 win tied for the most combined points scored in a game all season (California beat Washington State 60-59 last week).  It was Baylor’s best win of the season by far, and catapulted them from No. 29 to No. 11 in the KPI.  TCU remains ahead based on their quality wins over Minnesota and Oklahoma.  The highest point totals by a losing team this season:

  • Washington State 59 (vs California, October 4)
  • TCU 58 (at Baylor, October 11)
  • Colorado 56 in 2OT (at California, September 27)
  • FCS/Eastern Washington (at Washington, September 6)
  • Appalachian State 48 in OT (vs FCS/Liberty, October 11)

Scoreless at Home:  Missouri is the third team to be held scoreless at home this season.  TCU beat SMU 56-0 and Texas won at Kansas 23-0, both on September 27.

Road Warriors:  Road teams went 24-30 (.444) in Week 7, continuing to improve upon an overall road record of 143-282 (.336).  Excluding games involving FCS teams, road teams are 136-191 (.416).  Nine of last week’s KPI top 16 teams were on the road this week.  Those teams combined to win five of the nine road contests.  The Pac-12 is 22-7 (.759) in road games this year, including 14-4 in conference play, by far the best of any conference.  The Big 12 (13-7), SEC (15-13), and Big Ten (14-13) are the only other conferences above .500 on the road.

Scoring By Conference, Conference Games Only:

  1. Conference USA 34.2 PPG (Average Margin = +17.3 PPG)
  2. Pac-12 32.5 PPG (Average Margin = +9.6 PPG)
  3. Big 12 31.4 PPG (Average Margin = +12.9 PPG)
  4. Sun Belt 28.7 PPG (Average Margin = +15.4 PPG)
  5. SEC 28.2 PPG (Average Margin = +13.7 PPG)
  6. MAC 28.0 PPG (Average Margin = +10.1 PPG)
  7. Mountain West 25.4 PPG (Average Margin = +10.7 PPG)
  8. Big Ten 25.3 PPG (Average Margin = +13.3 PPG)
  9. ACC 24.5 PPG (Average Margin = +14.4 PPG)
  10. American 23.5 PPG (Average Margin = +12.4 PPG)

SEC West Numbers Inflated:  The SEC West numbers continue to stay inflated as those seven teams have won every game against a non-conference team or an SEC East opponent.  Teams have begun separating themselves, but teams will continue to benefit with every win against an SEC West foe.

Big Ten Crossover Matchups:  Especially in the Big Ten West, crossover matchups against Big Ten East opponents are important, and by pure math are not (and can never) be created equally:

  • Illinois: at #25 Ohio State, vs #41 Penn State
  • Iowa: at #51 Maryland, vs #57 Indiana
  • Minnesota: at #66 Michigan, vs #25 Ohio State
  • Nebraska: at #9 Michigan State, vs #62 Rutgers
  • Northwestern: at #41 Penn State, vs #66 Michigan
  • Purdue: at #57 Indiana, vs #9 Michigan State
  • Wisconsin: at #62 Rutgers, vs #51 Maryland

For The Playoff, The Eliminator:  Can we safely assume for a second that no three loss team will make the playoff?  There are 43 teams remaining in the Power 5 conferences who have two losses or fewer.

USC Up and USC Down:  USC has one of the more eccentric resumes to date.  They lost at #39 Boston College and at home to #27 Arizona State, but also have road wins at #30 Stanford and #10 Arizona.  They are the highest ranked two loss team to date.

NIU Magic:  Northern Illinois lost a regular season MAC game on Saturday for the first time since October 1, 2011 at Central Michigan.  It was also their first regular season home loss to a MAC opponent since November 12, 2008, also vs. Central Michigan.

UMass Wins!:  Massachusetts beat Kent State on Saturday for their first win of the season, leaving just three FBS teams without a win (SMU, Idaho, and Kent State).  Kent State’s loss to UMass is valued as the single worst loss by a FBS team to date (-1.18).

Rehashing Idaho at Florida:  Remember that Idaho at Florida game that got postponed?  The expected score now by EXPs would be Florida 49, Idaho 18.  At the moment, the win would actually hurt Florida’s KPI ranking (would drop to No. 26).  Not playing the game will help Florida unless the Gators were to finish 5-6 and the game precludes them from being bowl eligible.  Their strength of schedule is helped significantly.

Group of 5 Rankings: One team from the Group of 5 Conferences (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) will get a bid into one of the top six bowls.  Marshall is the only remaining undefeated team from that group.

  • #20 Marshall (6-0, 2-0 C-USA)
  • #34 Boise State (4-2, 2-1 Mountain West)
  • #37 Colorado State (5-1, 1-1 Mountain West)
  • #38 East Carolina (5-1, 2-0 American)
  • #42 Central Florida (3-2, 1-0 American)

Among divisions in Group of 5 conferences, only the Mountain West Mountain and Conference USA East have combined records above .500 this season.

FCS Rankings:  North Dakota State jumped to the top of the FCS rankings with their win over conference foe Southern Illinois on Saturday.  Previous leader Youngstown State lost at home to 3-4 Western Illinois late Saturday night.  FCS teams improved to 8-91 (.081) on the season after Liberty won at Appalachian State in overtime.  The average score in such games is 42.8-15.0, a margin of +27.7 PPG.

  1. North Dakota State (6-0), .415
  2. New Hampshire (5-1), .371
  3. Coastal Carolina (7-0), .322
  4. Illinois State (5-0), .305
  5. FBS Teams (91-8), .271
  6. Villanova (5-1), .259

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 7

  1. Duke, +45 spots (moved from 74 to 29)
  2. Boston College, +37 spots (moved from 76 to 39)
  3. Washington, +31 spots (moved from 54 to 23)
  4. Georgia, +28 spots (moved from 36 to 8)
  5. LSU, +26 spots (moved from 48 to 22)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 7

  1. Memphis, -36 spots (moved from 37 to 73)
  2. Northern Illinois, -36 spots (moved from 44 to 80)
  3. Northwestern, -33 spots (moved from 16 to 49)
  4. Wyoming, -32 spots (moved from 40 to 72)
  5. Arkansas, -31 spots (moved from 23 to 54)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +25.7
  2. TCU, +23.9
  3. Marshall, +23.5
  4. Michigan State, +21.4
  5. North Carolina, +20.1
  6. California, +20.1
  7. Oregon, +19.6
  8. Texas A&M, +19.3
  9. Arkansas, +19.2
  10. Florida State, +18.1

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +18.8
  2. Stanford, +17.3
  3. Auburn, +17.0
  4. Alabama, +15.2
  5. Texas, +13.6
  6. Mississippi State, +13.2
  7. Virginia Tech, +11.7
  8. Notre Dame, +10.0
  9. Penn State, +9.9
  10. Oklahoma, +9.8

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Auburn, +33.1
  2. Mississippi State, +30.8
  3. Mississippi, +28.7
  4. Marshall, +28.2
  5. Baylor, +27.4
  6. TCU, +26.4
  7. Clemson, +25.7
  8. Arkansas, +24.5
  9. Georgia, +24.5
  10. Oregon, +23.8

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. SMU, +.137
  2. South Carolina, +.111
  3. USC, +.104
  4. Auburn, +.090
  5. Florida, +.083
  6. UCLA, +.083
  7. Tennessee, +.068
  8. Texas A&M, +.064
  9. Mississippi State, +.056
  10. Alabama, +.055

Best Week 7 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.87 at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23
  2. +0.83 #8 Georgia 34, at #24 Missouri 0
  3. +0.82 #29 Duke 31, at #16 Georgia Tech 38
  4. +0.78 #2 Mississippi 35, at #33 Texas A&M 20
  5. +0.75 #7 USC 28, at #10 Arizona 26

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +0.87 at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23 (October 11)
  2. +0.85 at #5 Oregon 46, #9 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  3. +0.84 #10 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  4. +0.83 #8 Georgia 34, at #24 Missouri 0 (October 11)
  5. +0.82 #29 Duke 31, at #16 Georgia Tech 38 (October 11)
  6. +0.79 at #3 Auburn 41, #22 LSU 7 (October 4)
  7. +0.78 #30 Stanford 20, at #23 Washington 13 (September 27)
  8. +0.78 #2 Mississippi 35, at #33 Texas A&M 20 (October 11)
  9. +0.77 at #6 TCU 30, #28 Minnesota 7 (September 13)
  10. +0.75 #7 USC 28, at #10 Arizona 26 (October 11)

Most Valuable Week 7 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 99.5% at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23
  2. 97.6% #2 Mississippi 35, at #33 Texas A&M 20
  3. 96.7% at #11 Baylor 61, #6 TCU 58
  4. 90.1% #5 Oregon 42, at #13 UCLA 30
  5. 87.9% #8 Georgia 34, at #24 Missouri 0

Most Valuable Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 99.5% at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23 (October 11)
  2. 98.1% at #2 Mississippi 23, #14 Alabama 17 (October 4)
  3. 97.6% #2 Mississippi 35, at #33 Texas A&M 20 (October 11)
  4. 97.4% #1 Mississippi State 34, at #22 LSU 29 (September 20)
  5. 97.4% at #1 Mississippi State 48, #33 Texas A&M 31 (October 4)
  6. 96.7% at #11 Baylor 61, #6 TCU 58 (October 11)
  7. 96.5% at #3 Auburn 41, #22 LSU 7 (October 4)
  8. 95.2% #3 Auburn 20, at #45 Kansas State 14 (September 18)
  9. 94.6% at #9 Michigan State 27, #32 Nebraska 22 (October 4)
  10. 94.5% at #5 Oregon 46, #9 Michigan State 27 (September 6)

Outlier Week 7 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 63.1% #127 Massachusetts 40, at #129 Kent State 17
  2. 54.7% #29 Duke 31, at #16 Georgia Tech 25
  3. 48.2% #96 Central Michigan 34, at #80 Northern Illinois 17
  4. 47.8% #104 Houston 28, at #73 Memphis 24
  5. 44.8% #7 USC 28, at #10 Arizona 26

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 76.5% #71 Washington State 28, at #47 Utah 27 (September 27)
  2. 65.5% #112 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #104 Houston 7 (September 29)
  3. 64.4% #120 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #76 Louisiana Tech 27 (September 20)
  4. 63.1% #127 Massachusetts 40, at #129 Kent State 17 (October 11)
  5. 59.6% #57 Indiana 31, at #24 Missouri 27 (September 20)
  6. 59.3% #50 Iowa State 20, at #44 Iowa 17 (September 13)
  7. 58.4% #102 Florida International 34, at #84 UAB 20 (September 27)
  8. 57.8% #118 New Mexico 21, at #112 Texas-San Antonio 9 (October 4)
  9. 55.7% #120 FCS/North Dakota State 34, at #50 Iowa State 14 (September 30)
  10. 55.6% #30 Stanford 20, at #23 Washington 13 (September 27)

Most Accurate Week 7 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 1.8% at #28 Minnesota 24, #49 Northwestern 17 (EXP Score: Minnesota 23-17)
  2. 3.5% #22 LSU 30, at #19 Florida 27 (EXP Score: LSU 29-28)
  3. 4.4% #9 Michigan State 45, at #67 Purdue 31 (EXP Score: Michigan State 46-29)
  4. 5.0% at #106 UTEP 42, #94 Old Dominion 35 (EXP Score: UTEP 39-36)
  5. 8.4% #4 Florida State 38, at #59 Syracuse 20 (EXP Score: Florida State 38-24)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed late Saturday night:

  • Tulane at Central Florida: 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  • South Florida at Tulsa: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPNEWS
  • Rutgers at Ohio State: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer-Market
  • Michigan State at Indiana: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Tennessee at Mississippi: 7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • Missouri at Florida: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
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