# Week 5 KPI Prologue: “The Meat”

As the college football season nears October, the meat of the schedule starts approaching.  Two-thirds of the games played this week will be conference games, leading into a monster schedule on October 4.

Conference Play Begins:  36 of 54 (67%) games in Week 5 are conference games, the highest percentage of conference games in a single week to date.  The 54 games scheduled is tied for the fewest number of games involving an FBS team in any week (Week 9 also has 54 games, Weeks 4, 6 and 12 have 57 games each).

South Carolina in the SEC: South Carolina has played three conference games already, more than any FBS team.  Only six teams total have played more than one conference game.  65 teams (roughly half of FBS teams) have not played a single conference game entering the weekend.

EXPs: The EXPs algorithm is designed to answer what is “expected” out of a particular statistic in a particular game based on how data from previous games compares to opponents.

Entering Thursday’s games, the EXPs algorithm indicates that are a total of 236 “expected” winners and 38 “unexpected” winners, an 86% rate by which the team expected to win does so.

Offensive DIFFs: (by Points Scored vs. Expected Points Scored)

1. +31.0 Baylor
2. +29.4 Oregon
3. +28.9 TCU
4. +28.6 Arkansas
5. +27.8 California
6. +26.8 North Carolina
7. +26.0 Michigan State
8. +26.0 Memphis
9. +25.6 Marshall
10. +25.1 Utah

Defensive DIFFs: (by Points Allowed vs. Expected Points Allowed)

1. +18.4 Auburn
2. +14.8 Texas
3. +14.4 Notre Dame
4. +14.0 Alabama
5. +13.9 Stanford
6. +13.8 Mississippi
7. +13.5 Oklahoma
8. +13.0 Penn State
9. +12.4 Texas-San Antonio
10. +12.1 Michigan

Total DIFFs: (combining offensive AND defensive DIFFs)

1. +34.5 Baylor
2. +34.4 Auburn
3. +33.3 Oregon
4. +33.0 LSU
5. +32.6 Arkansas
6. +31.9 TCU
7. +31.7 Memphis
8. +31.3 Wisconsin
9. +27.6 Oklahoma
10. +27.4 Texas A&M

Conference Rankings by DIVISION (entering Thursday’s games):

1. SEC West (24-2, .923 Overall), .292 KPI
2. Big 12 (21-10, .677 Overall), .132 KPI
3. Pac-12 South (17-3, .850 Overall), .119 KPI
4. ACC Coastal (19-8, .704 Overall), .096 KPI
5. Pac-12 North (16-5, .762 Overall), .089 KPI
6. Big Ten East (18-7, .720 Overall), .087 KPI
7. ACC Atlantic (18-7, .720 Overall), .061 KPI
8. SEC East (15-9, .625 Overall), .054 KPI
9. Big Ten West (18-8, .692 Overall), .043 KPI
10. Mountain West Mountain (13-8, .619 Overall), .017 KPI
11. Conference USA East (14-12, .538 Overall), -.034 KPI
12. American (17-20, .459 Overall), -.052 KPI
13. MAC West (11-12, .478 Overall), -.057 KPI
14. Conference USA West (9-12, .429 Overall), -.059 KPI
15. Mountain West West (7-14, .333 Overall), -.074 KPI
16. Sun Belt (13-26, .333 Overall), -.159 KPI
17. MAC East (7-19, .269 Overall), -.195 KPI

Top 10 Games in Week 5, ranked by G-Score (entering Thursday’s games)

1. #7 Arkansas (3-1, 0-1 SEC) vs. #11 Texas A&M (4-0, 1-0 SEC) in Arlington, TX: Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
2. #18 Florida State (3-0, 1-0 ACC) at #10 North Carolina State (4-0, 0-0 ACC): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer-Market
3. #19 Maryland (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #25 Indiana (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten): Saturday 1:30 p.m. ET, BTN (Regional)
4. #28 Missouri (3-1, 0-0 SEC) at #16 South Carolina (3-1, 2-1 SEC): Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
5. #24 Notre Dame (3-0) vs. #27 Syracuse (2-1, 0-0 ACC): Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC
6. #8 UCLA (3-0, 0-0 Pac-12) at #34 Arizona State (3-0, 1-0 Pac-12): Thursday 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT, FOX Sports 1 (Note: UCLA won at Arizona State 62-27, a win worth +.67 for UCLA and moving them up to No. 2 in the KPI Rankings)
7. #29 Texas Tech (2-1, 0-0 Big 12) at #30 Oklahoma State (2-1, 0-0 Big 12): Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, ESPN (Note: Oklahoma State moved up to No. 27 with the 45-35 win Thursday, a win worth +.19)
8. #43 Illinois (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #33 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0 Big Ten): Saturday 9 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CT, BTN
9. #42 Oregon State (3-0, 0-0 Pac-12) at #41 USC (2-1, 1-0 Pac-12): Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
10. #60 Memphis (2-1, 0-0 American) at #12 Mississippi (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, SEC on FSN (Regional)

Have a great weekend.

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