Week 2 KPI Prologue: Let’s Go West!

There will be no hint of any “East Coast Bias” this week.

ESPN College Gameday heads to Eugene, OR and kicks off at 9 a.m. ET/6 a.m. PT on ESPN.  Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will jump a quick flight south to Palo Alto to call USC-Stanford at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT on ABC.

It is an important week for the Big Ten and Pac-12.  Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State all play key non-conference games that will help drive the Big Ten East numbers.  Three wins doesn’t mean the Big Ten is sending a team to the Playoff, and three losses doesn’t mean they aren’t.  Remember, we aren’t going to jump to conclusions this week.  Hey, I tried!

After 10 Week 1 games between Power 5 conference teams (3 were conference matchups), there will be only six such matchups in Week 2 (the fewest of any week this season).  Four of six will be conference contests (1 each from the ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC).

The MSU-Oregon and USC-Stanford games are the top two games by G-Score this week.  It’s the second straight week that ESPN has sent Gameday to the site of the highest G-Score game.  I smell a conspiracy.

Top 10 Games in Week 2, ranked by G-Score (Note: G-Score data from the 2013 season is also factored).  The full TV schedule can be found here.

  1. Michigan State at Oregon (Saturday 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT, FOX)
  2. USC at Stanford (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, ABC)
  3. Michigan at Notre Dame (Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
  4. Virginia Tech at Ohio State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  5. BYU at Texas (Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, FOX Sports 1)
  6. East Carolina at South Carolina (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  7. Fresno State at Utah (Saturday 3 p.m. ET/1 p.m. MT, Pac-12 Network)
  8. Missouri at Toledo (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  9. Arizona at Texas-San Antonio (Thursday 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT, FOX Sports 1)
  10. Mississippi at Vanderbilt (Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Data Points

FCS Opponents Dwindling:  After 46 games between FBS and FCS schools in Week 1, 29 FBS teams will take on an FCS in Week 2.  There are only 32 such games the rest of the season (18 of which are in Weeks 3 and 4).

Lone Star State:  SMU at North Texas is the only matchup between teams who are both 0-1.  There are 25 matchups between teams who both won their first game.

Conference Rankings:  After Arizona’s 26-23 win at UTSA Thursday night, they became the first (and only) team not only to start 2-0, but beat a school that has another win.  The conference rankings entering Friday, September 5:

  1. Pac-12 (11-2, .846)                           .029
  2. SEC (10-3, .769)                                 .020
  3. Big Ten (12-2, .857)                          .018
  4. ACC (10-4, .714)                                -.014
  5. MAC (8-5, .615)                                 -.020
  6. Mountain West (6-6, .500)           -.021
  7. Sun Belt (6-3, .667)                          -.030
  8. Conference USA (7-7, .500)         -.061
  9. Big 12 (6-3, .667)                               -.062
  10. American (5-5,. 500)                       -.071

The data remains “inconclusive” as we gain more of it.  The rankings will start to make sense a little bit more by week’s end as we reduce our group of 81 undefeated teams.

Enjoy Week 2 of college football!  Even better, the NFL is back.  Fall is officially here.

Posted in KPI Sports, Prologue.