Week 8 KPI Prologue: “Big Games Remain”

The KPI caught some crap this week for USC being ranked so high (No. 7 this week).  They are the highest ranked two-loss team (#13 UCLA and #17 Clemson are next) and have road wins at Stanford and Arizona.  The Trojans have played five of six games against Power 5 schools, losing twice (Boston College, Arizona State).

So, what’s the point?

Simple.  The playoff field hasn’t been determined yet.  As I’ve tweeted over and over again, picking teams now for the 2014 College Football Playoff is the equivalent of the basketball committee selecting teams in mid-January.  The top four teams in that bracket (the one seeds) in mid-January was very different than on Selection Sunday.

The KPI EXPs formula has calculated the expected final standings at the end of the season, and there were some definite similarities to what Pat Forde wrote about at Yahoo! Sports earlier this week.  The EXPs formula is currently projecting game winners with an accuracy of 82.0%.

There are 25 games remaining between two teams both ranked in the KPI Top 25.  There will be debate, but there is a lot left to play out.  Right now, the KPI Rankings are ranking RESUMES, not teams.  As the volume of data increases, they will become closer to one in the same.

Remaining Games Between Two Teams in the KPI Top 25:

October 18

  • #24 Missouri at #19 Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  • #12 Notre Dame at #4 Florida State (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  • #23 Washington at #5 Oregon (8 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)

October 23

  • #25 Miami (FL) at #21 Virginia Tech (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

October 25

  • #18 South Carolina at #3 Auburn (7:15/7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/2/SEC Network)
  • #2 Mississippi at #22 LSU (7:15/7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/2/SEC Network)

November 1

  • #19 Florida vs. #8 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  • #3 Auburn at #2 Mississippi
  • #10 Arizona at #13 UCLA

November 8

  • #11 Baylor at #15 Oklahoma
  • #14 Alabama at #22 LSU
  • #13 UCLA at #23 Washington

November 15

  • #3 Auburn at #8 Georgia
  • #1 Mississippi State at #14 Alabama
  • #17 Clemson at #16 Georgia Tech
  • #18 South Carolina at #19 Florida
  • #23 Washington at #10 Arizona
  • #4 Florida State at #25 Miami (FL)

November 22

  • #7 USC at #13 UCLA

November 29

  • #1 Mississippi State at #2 Mississippi
  • #12 Notre Dame at #7 USC
  • #3 Auburn at #14 Alabama
  • #16 Georgia Tech at #8 Georgia
  • #19 Florida at #4 Florida State
  • #18 South Carolina at #17 Clemson

The Eliminator:  Can we safely assume that a 3-loss team from a Power 5 conference will not make the playoff?  Can we also assume that a 1-loss team from a Group of 5 conference will not make the playoff?  Let’s assume both answers are yes for a moment.  If so, these are the 48 teams still alive for the playoff:

  • ACC (8): Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Boston College
  • AMERICAN (2): East Carolina, Temple
  • BIG 12 (6): TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
  • BIG TEN (9): Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin, Rutgers
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • MAC (0)
  • MOUNTAIN WEST (1): Colorado State
  • PAC-12 (10): Oregon, USC, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford, Utah, California, Oregon State
  • SEC (10): Mississippi State, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky
  • SUN BELT (0)
  • INDEPENDENT (1): Notre Dame

Top 10 Games in Week 8, ranked by G-Score (entering Thursday’s games)

  1. #12 Notre Dame (6-0) at #4 Florida State (6-0, 4-0 ACC): Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC
  2. #23 Washington (5-1, 1-1 Pac-12) at #5 Oregon (5-1, 2-1 Pac-12): Saturday 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, FOX Sports 1
  3. #24 Missouri (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at #19 Florida (3-2, 2-2 SEC): Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  4. #32 Tennessee (3-3, 0-2 SEC) at #2 Mississippi (6-0, 3-0 SEC): Saturday 7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT, ESPN
  5. #34 Texas A&M (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at #14 Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
  6. #31 Stanford (4-2, 2-1 Pac-12) at #27 Arizona State (4-1, 2-1 Pac-12): Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
  7. #35 Virginia (4-2, 2-0 ACC) at #28 Duke (5-1, 1-1 ACC): Saturday 12:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network/ESPN3
  8. #11 Baylor (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) at #41 West Virginia (4-2, 2-1 Big 12): Saturday 12 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1
  9. #17 Clemson (4-2, 3-1 ACC) at #39 Boston College (4-2, 1-1 ACC): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  10. #46 Oklahoma State (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) at #6 TCU (4-1, 1-1 Big 12): Saturday 4 p.m. ET/3 p.m. CT, FOX Sports 1
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