MBB Data Points: January 5, 2015

Kentucky: Forget what the Wildcats might do for now, instead let’s focus on what they have done.  UK is the No. 1 defensive team and No. 9 offensive team by the DIFFs algorithm.  They have five wins against the KPI Top 50 by an average margin of 17.2 PPG.

Big 12 Non-Conference Schedule Almost Complete:  The Big 12 is 104-22 (.825) in non-conference play with one non-conference game yet to play (Baylor will play a Non D-I in a few weeks).  The Big 12 is No. 1 in the KPI Conference Rankings (followed by the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, and SEC).  The Big 12 and Big East will both play a true double round robin conference schedule.

Old Dominion:  Old Dominion has climbed to No. 10 in the current KPI Rankings.  A home win over No. 7 VCU (+.75) and Paradise Jam quarterfinal victory over No. 31 LSU have held strong.  ODU’s strength of schedule sits at No. 96, with a remaining SOS of 215.  Conference USA is the No. 14 conference through Sunday, but only UTEP (No. 64) and Charlotte (No. 72) are in the Top 100.  ODU gets Charlotte twice this season (the first meeting came Sunday) and plays UTEP only once (at UTEP, Feb. 14).

SWAC Home Games:  In non-conference play, the SWAC played 85.1% of their games away from campus, finishing with 103 road/neutral games and 18 home games.   Only the MEAC (who has three additional members) played more.

Feasting on Non-Division I Teams:  Division I teams are a combined 393-6 (.985) against Non-Division I competition.  The averaging margin of victory is 29.2 points per game (85.8-56.5).  In 2013-14, Division I teams went 425-14 (.968) vs. Non D-I schools by an average margin of 29.7 PPG (90.2-60.5).

Tighter Games in Conference:  The average margin per game is 16.4 PPG in non-conference games this year, but only 11.0 PPG in conference games.  Scoring (as is customary) is slightly lower in conference play (66.8 PPG) than non-conference (67.5 PPG).

Best Defensive Teams:  By the KPI DIFFs algorithm, the best defensive teams in the country are (1) Kentucky, (2) Louisville, (3) Virginia, (4) San Diego State, and (5) Oklahoma.

Top 10 Wins by KPI – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.07 #3 Duke 80, at #4 Wisconsin 70 (Dec 3)
  2. +1.02 #2 Virginia 76, at #12 Maryland 65 (Dec 3)
  3. +1.01 #2 Virginia 74, at #7 VCU 57 (Dec 6)
  4. +1.00 #1 Kentucky 58, at #18 Louisville 50 (Dec 27)
  5. +0.99 #31 LSU 74, at #9 West Virginia 73 (Dec 4)
  6. +0.92 #1 Kentucky 72, #5 Kansas 40 (Nov 18)
  7. +0.92 #28 Stanford 74, at #14 Texas 71 OT (Dec 23)
  8. +0.91 #9 West Virginia 78, at #53 TCU 67 (Jan 3)
  9. +0.91 #7 VCU 68, at #20 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 20)
  10. +0.89 #40 Iowa 60, at #22 North Carolina 55 (Dec 3)

Top 10 Outlier Games by KPI – FULL SEASON

  1. 118.6% #349 Non D-I/SE Oklahoma State 69, at #114 Tulsa 66 (Dec 10)
  2. 115.4% #349 Non D-I/Ferris State 82, at #182 Bowling Green 68 (Dec 21)
  3. 108.5% #334 Cal State-Bakersfield 55, at #73 California 52 (Dec 28)
  4. 88.6% #209 Brown 77, at #33 Providence 67 (Dec 8)
  5. 87.6% #215 Northern Arizona 73, at #54 St. Mary’s 71 (Dec 16)
  6. 85.4% #345 Central Connecticut 56, at #265 Hartford 47 (Dec 6)
  7. 83.1% #338 Idaho State 67, at #199 Grand Canyon 51 (Dec 9)
  8. 82.1% #306 UNC-Greensboro 80, at #163 East Tennessee State 79 (Dec 13)
  9. 78.8% #256 Navy 69, at #124 Lafayette 65 (Jan 3)
  10. 77.8% #279 Winthrop 77, at #83 Clemson 74 (Nov 17)

Season Scoring Trends: The downward trend in scoring has continued.  Scoring is down 6.2% (4.48 PPG) between this year and data through the first Sunday in January last year.  Pace is down (1.96 possessions per team, per game).  Free throw attempts are down 10.9% (2.48 FTA/game).  Steals and turnovers are both up on a per game basis and also a per possession basis.  Teams are also shooting more 3’s per possession (up 3.8%).

MBB Trends 14-15 (thru 1-4-15)

 

PPG Graph by Year

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