Week 13 KPI Prologue – “Schedule Lite”

By G-Score, Week 13 will be the lightest schedule of conference games this season, but only the fifth lightest week of the season.

Games against FCS opponents have a lot to do with this.  There are six games against FCS teams this week (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, BYU, and Army will play host to such games).  The SEC has backloaded its FCS games (nine of 14 SEC teams host an FCS on October 11 or later, 9 of the final 13 FBS-FCS matchups of the season involve an SEC team).

Every conference is playing FCS games, so this is not an SEC problem.  The SEC component looks different because most schools play their FCS game early in the season.

FCS teams are a combined 8-94 (.078) against FBS competition.  The average score of such games? FBS Team 42.8, FCS Team 14.8, a margin of 28.0 PPG.  34.4% of all non-conference games involved an FBS-FCS matchup.

Week Dates GP Avg G-Score Games vs. FCS
12 November 11-15 50 56.9 0
6 October 2-4 57 57.0 0
14 November 25-29 61 57.5 0
10 October 30-November 1 54 57.8 0
8 October 14-18 53 58.7 1
7 October 9-11 54 59.0 4
9 October 21-25 49 59.1 0
11 November 4-8 50 60.7 2
5 September 25-27 54 61.0 1
13 November 18-22 59 61.7 6
3 September 11-13 58 64.2 7
4 September 18-20 57 65.4 11
2 September 4-6 74 71.1 29
1 August 27-September 1 84 73.4 46

Playing more competitive games is important for fans attending games, teams competing in games, and television networks broadcasting the games.  Creating parity among teams in one conference is far easier than creating it among all of FBS.

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 19 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (3): Florida State, Georgia Tech
  • BIG 12 (3): TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (4): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (4): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona
  • SEC (5): Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State, Missouri

Top 10 Week 13 Games ranked by G-Score (KPI Rankings entering Friday’s games)

  1. #28 USC (7-3, 6-2 Pac-12) at #8 UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12), Saturday 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, ABC
  2. #1 Mississippi (8-2, 4-2 SEC) at #31 Arkansas (5-5, 1-5 SEC), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
  3. #22 Arizona (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) at #24 Utah (7-3, 4-3 Pac-12), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. MT, ESPN
  4. #16 Missouri (8-2, 5-1 SEC) at #32 Tennessee (5-5, 2-4 SEC), Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
  5. #33 Louisville (7-3, 5-3 ACC) at #34 Notre Dame (7-3), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
  6. #39 Minnesota (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten) at #25 Nebraska (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten), Saturday 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN
  7. #50 Boston College (6-4, 3-3 ACC) at #7 Florida State (10-0, 7-0 ACC), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  8. #56 Rutgers (6-4, 2-4 Big Ten) at #13 Michigan State (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten), Saturday 12 p.m. ET, BTN
  9. #15 Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) at #61 Iowa (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  10. #21 Miami (FL) (6-4, 3-3 ACC) at #63 Virginia (4-6, 2-4 ACC), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
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